Research Idea Details

Validating Driving Cycles and Emission Factors for Higher Road Grades

Research Idea Scope

While the MOVES emission model used in project-level air quality analyses can be used to estimate emissions for any road grade, it has not been validated for non-zero road grades against field data for both driving cycles (second-by-second speeds) and emissions, which goes against good science and due diligence. It may also lead to problems clearing projects in the future that have higher road grades. The proposed research would review available field data from studies reported in the literature that collected driving cycle/speed, road grade and emission data to test (or spot check) the modeled emission factors for positive road grades. To the extent permitted by the available data, the analysis will address both light- and heavy-duty vehicles and the pollutants typically assessed in air quality analyses for NEPA, namely particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), which is the priority given EPA’s focus on it as reflected in their recent substantial reduction to the national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) for this pollutant, and carbon monoxide (CO). As funding permits and data are available, other pollutants also may be included, e.g., greenhouse gases (GHGs). Any identified deficiencies in the model can then be addressed in future updates.

Urgency and Payoff

Questions* have been raised in the EPA MOVES Review Workgroup process about the reliability of emission factors modeled using MOVES for higher road grades, particularly for PM and CO. The lack of validation of the MOVES model used by State DOTs for air quality assessments included in NEPA studies may therefore become an issue in public review, i.e., the NEPA assessment may be questioned on the basis that it used an emission model that not only has not been validated for the higher road grades assessed in the air quality analysis but also has been reported to generate anomalous results for higher road grades. The NEPA documentation including the air quality study may also be judged to lack transparency on this issue. Challenges in public review may result in delays in the NEPA process and project delivery, particularly involving assessments for particulate matter (PM) and environmental justice (EJ).

* https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2019-12/documents/03-moves-project-level-analyses-2019-10-09.pdf

Suggested By:
Christopher Voigt
Submitted:
05/08/2024